Branch.

UK poll of polls · as of Aug '26

Scenario

Your path

Economic conditions

Commons projection — rough

Reality anchor

What else moved the polls

Every period applies your chosen event and then a set of exogenous forces you were never asked about: economic voting, anti-incumbent drift, the fading of Burnham's honeymoon, reversion to each party's underlying support, momentum, competition within the left and right blocs, tactical squeeze as the election nears, and ordinary polling noise. The sidebar shows what each one did. Seat numbers are a crude share-to-seats conversion, not a constituency model. Historical scenarios pull each result back toward what really happened; that pull weakens the longer your run diverges in a consistent direction. Share links replay a run exactly, seed and all.