AKP-MHP to narrowly miss majority as YENI emerges as a major force.

Neither side has the chamber.

267 is a strong plurality — nearly forty-five percent of the seats. It is not a governing majority, and the AKP has not held one alone since 2015. With the MHP down to 28, the People's Alliance lands on 295.

The opposition side clears 301 on paper and not much more than paper. Yeni Parti, DEM and İYİ share no alliance structure, and İYİ has ruled out arrangements involving DEM. The realistic reading is a parliament where no bloc commands the floor by default.

The CHP returns nothing.

Türkiye's national threshold has been 7% since 2022. A party clears it either on its own vote or inside an alliance whose combined vote clears it. Miss both and it wins no seats at all, however many votes it banked in a given province.

This run puts the CHP below that line. After the July split — Özgür Özel's removal as chairman by court ruling, and the departure of roughly ninety MPs to found Yeni Parti — the projection has the party's vote following its MPs across, with no alliance to catch what remains. Yeni Parti inherits the bench and the map.

That exclusion is also why the AKP's share of seats outruns its share of votes by roughly nine points. Sub-threshold votes elect nobody, and D'Hondt redistributes that weight toward the largest party in each district.

Fifty provinces, and a corridor.

The AKP holds the Anatolian interior and the Black Sea coast. Yeni Parti takes the Aegean and Mediterranean coasts, Thrace and the western metropolitan blocks — 23 provinces. DEM leads eight in the south-east.