About
Methodology & Purpose
Purpose
What is this?
This is a personal probability forecasting project where I publish my subjective probability estimates for events in Formula 1 and politics. This is not for gambling purposes, rather is purely an analytical exercise in forecasting and probability reasoning.
The goal is to make structured predictions, track how they evolve over time, and improve my calibration as a forecaster.
Approach
How I Set My Probabilities
Formula 1
F1 Forecasting
Politics
Political Forecasting
My political forecasting draws on a variety of inputs including polling, fundamentals, institutional analysis, and historical precedent.
Updates
How Often Do Probabilities Change?
It can range from minute to minute within a day up to a week. It really depends on the nature of the specific market.